Atmospheric River Friday through Sunday – Hour by Hour

It has begun.

If you haven’t already seen it click here to open up my Alberniweather PodLive stream from last night where I give a rundown on what to expect.

Showers have begun across Vancouver Island as the first storm of the season begins. Did you notice the little skiff of snow on Mt Arrowsmith yesterday!? Yes, this could also be the first bit of snowfall at high elevations but the vast majority is going to be rain and any snow may be washed away by Monday anyway. Let’s take a look.

The first wave of this Atmospheric River has already moved into Haida Gwaii and the Central Coast yesterday and overnight as you can see from the Satellite right now.

The meat of the rain has only now begun to sweep down Vancouver Island.

Here it is on radar right now as the first wave of rain exits the Island and moves into Vancouver.

This is just the prelude to the main event that will have heavy rain spread down the Island this afternoon.

Timing – Including when to Vote if you don’t have an umbrella

Please do get out there and vote on Saturday! A little rain won’t hurt, but if you’re really worried about the weather, check out the timeline below.

Let’s go Hour by Hour starting at noon Friday.

Noon Friday

The meat of the storm will begin to hit Vancouver Island around noon today. You can see below it is focused first on the North Island but heavy (blue areas) rain reaches down to Tofino and Ucluelet.

Expect this to be when the winds start to pick up as well. You can see there is a switch that happens at this moment from SouthEasterly (near Barkley Sound and Tofino on this image) to strong SouthWesterly behind the rain bands offshore.

3PM Friday

By 3PM, in the image below, we see heavy rain spreading down and into the Inland areas of the Island including Alberni and Cowichan Valleys. The heaviest rain is on the West Coast all the way from Kyuquot to Port Renfrew.

The winds should be fully shifted to Southwest on both the West and East Coast by this time but notice the East Coast of the Island is in a shadow along with Victoria, but Vancouver and the Fraser Valley is starting to see heavier rainfall on the North Shore.

5PM Friday

Maximum intensity on the Island for this first round looks like around 5PM. Notice the purple area near Ucluelet and Uchuklehsaht Territory. 30-40mm in the hour of 4-5PM.

Expect heavy rain by now in the Comox, Alberni, and Cowichan Valleys. Rain has spread across the East Coast as well. Only Victoria is still mostly dry or just showers. Winds are also strong on the West Coast.

7PM Friday

Maximum coverage happens a couple hours later for the entire South Coast as the meat of the system spreads over the whole are.

Notice at this time winds are strong, but also the North Island is beginning to see the end of the first wave.

10PM Friday

By 10PM the North Island has almost cleared, but the firehose continues to point at the West Coast, Central and South portions of Vancouver Island as well as the Fraser Valley.

4AM Saturday

By 4AM Saturday a new band of heavy moisture streams in off the Pacific pointed squarely at Tofino and Ucluelet as well as Barkley Sound, Huu-ay-aht, Ditidaht, and Cowichan Valley.

There is an interesting shadow/hole with no rain suggested here in the Alberni Valley. I’ll be interested to see if this is true or if the Alberni Valley gets a significant pulse at this time.

7AM Saturday – Voting starts at 8AM!

The rain intensifies around 7AM across most of the Central and South Island and in Vancouver. If you’re looking outside at that moment as you get ready to be the first in line to vote at 8AM on Saturday… you’ll want an umbrella!

Those of you on the East Coast and in Victoria should be mostly free of rain though! Still big shadows suggesting a relief from the rain while you vote.

4PM Saturday

Rain will continue for the West Coast and Central Island including Cowichan Valley through the day on Saturday but the rain will move south gradually and by 4PM we see the system really sliding.

The entire North Island gets a break as does Port Alberni and Tofino and Ucluelet — Go Vote if you haven’t already! Now is your chance! For those of you in Victoria, it’ll be soggy now and in Vancouver as well.

7PM Saturday – Vote Closes at 8PM!

By the last hour of voting at 7PM rain will taper off in the heaviest areas but will spread northward again and across the whole region in preparation for a wet Saturday overnight.

4AM Sunday

By Sunday morning we’ll wake up to the 3rd and final push for this system and heavy rain spread across most of the Island but focused especially again on the Cowichan Valley.

11AM Sunday

Thankfully, by about 11AM, the rain should be done for everyone except Victoria and parts of the Fraser Valley as the system moves to the South.

The End and Totals

By Noon, everyone should be in the clear on the Island and winds will have calmed as well.

We’ll see what Sunday brings as far as totals and damage but I would expect:

• Tofino/Ucluelet (Official): 100-150mm
• Sutton Pass: 200+
• Port Alberni: 50-75mm
• Cowichan Łąkę: 100mm
• Courtenay: 50mm
• Victoria: 30mm
• Vancouver: 50mm
• Nanaimo: 30mm

Stay safe out there, go vote, and enjoy the return to the Wet Coast Weather! 🙂

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