April 2014 Summary – April Showers plus Hot Summer and El Niño loom

April showers not quite as strong, El Niño Watch on.

April was on average for temperatures, below average for rainfall. Check out the full report below. Oh, and it’s going to start raining late this morning or early afternoon. 🙂

Snowpack has peaked

The BC River Forecast Centre shows the snowpack peaked in early April at roughly half its average amount and is in its spring decline.

The newspaper this week ran a story indicating the Forest Fire Service is preparing for a hot and dry summer. Accuweather also released their Summer 2014 forecast and they say

Meanwhile, high pressure reigns, above-normal temperatures and less rainfall are predicted for much of British Columbia into areas in extreme western Alberta this summer.

The combination of increased heat and little rainfall, coupled with the ongoing Pine Bark Beetle infestation, will raise the risk for large wildfires along and west of the Continental Divide.

In Vancouver, British Columbia, the combination of high pressure and above-normal sea surface temperatures in the northeast Pacific will lead to a slightly warmer-than-normal summer with reduced chances for rainfall.

Temperatures average basically average, rainfall below normal.

For the month of April we were pretty well near average except the City was significant warmer in the nightime hours than the Aiport, but that is to be expected.

Rainfall was more the story. Well it may have seemed wet because of our exceptionally dry winter, we actually only received 70-77% of our normal rainfall amount for the month of April. This contributed to the peak in the snowpack.

El Niño Watch in Effect

The signs of a coming El Niño continue to present themselves. The latest El Nino forecast was just released today. Their synopsis:

Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.

The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El Niño compared with those from last month. Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6), most likely transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become.

This image shows the shift in the tropical Pacific regions from cool La Nina and Neutral conditions to warmer El Nino conditions over the past few months.

Environment Canada removed the Port Alberni “A” station from the climate normals and averages listing for 1981-2010 so we will only compare to the Robertson Creek station. However, I will continue to separate the official Airport station from the averages for the unofficial stations in the City.

Average Daily Temperature for April:

Environment Canada Airport: 8.3° C
Alberniweather:9.0° C
Alberni Elementary:8.9° C
Maquinna: 8.4° C
Neptune Canada: 8.9° C
Overall City Average: 8.8° C
1981-2010 Environment Canada Normal (Alberni Robertson Creek): 8.5° C
City Station Ave. Difference from Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: +0.3° C
Official (Airport) Difference from Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: -0.2° C

Average Minimum Daily Temperature for April:

EC: 2.9° C
Alberniweather: 4.7° C
AES: 4.4° C
MAQ: 4.4° C
NEP: 4.8° C
Overall City Average: 4.6° C
1981-2010 Environment Canada Normal (Alberni Robertson Creek): 2.7° C
City Station Ave. Difference from Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: +1.9° C
Official (Airport) Difference from Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: +0.2° C

Average Maximum Daily Temperature for April:

EC:13.7° C
Alberniweather: 14.1° C
AES: 14.0° C
MAQ: 13.6° C
NEP: 14.3° C
Overall City Average: 14.0° C
1981-2010 Environment Canada Normal (Alberni Robertson Creek): 14.2° C
City Station Ave. Difference from Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: -0.2° C
Official (Airport) Difference from Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: -0.5° C

Average Precipitation for December:

EC: 110.6 mm
Alberniweather: 91.7 mm
AES: 99.8 mm
MAQ: 109.2 mm
NEP: NA (not measured)
Overall City Average: 100.2 mm
1981-2010 Environment Canada Normal (Alberni Robertson Creek): 143.6 mm
City Station Ave. Difference Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: -43.4 mm (70% normal)
Official (Airport) Difference from Robertson Creek 1981-2010 normal: -33.0 mm (77% of normal)

Comparison to recent February’s at Alberniweather (only).

2013: April 2014 was a little cooler than last year, but much drier. We got 245mm of rain in April 2013.

2012:
March 2012 was very cold compared to this year and again much wetter.

2011:
March 2011 was very cold this year and much wetter like 2013 and 2012.

2010:
March 2010 was similar in temperature and a little wetter (200mm) than this year.

2009:
March 2009 was similar in precipitation, but a little cooler.

2008:
March 2008 was a little cooler in temperature, and drier.

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Alberniweather Blog (Chris)

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