Update 12:30PM – Storm 2 takes its time. Causes Tornado in Oregon. Strongest Port Alberni winds coming before 5PM.
This storm has really been taking its time. The forecast last night said it would make landfall before 11AM. Yet at 11AM this morning Environment Canada had this to say in the updated Wind Warning.
At 11 a.m., the low is approximately 120 km south of Tofino. Ahead of the low, the wind will continue to increase from the southeast along the west coast of Vancouver Island peaking at 100 km/h early this afteroon.
Port Alberni will see their strongest winds from the southwest gusting to 90 km/h with the passage of the low.
A rare shout-out to Port Alberni specifically! So we should sit tight for a while yet and keep your eye on the barometer reading on this page. It is still falling, which means the low is approaching. When it stops falling, that will indicate the low is as close as it will get and the wind should come soon after.
Current barometer reading at 12:13PM: 98.17hPa
Judging by the cloud tops in the image, the low is very close to making landfall right now.
And ya… Tornado in Oregon!
Pic of tornado that caused damage in Manzanita, OR this AM – CREDIT: Julee Ward. @NWSPortland hasn't issued a tornado warning in 2yrs! pic.twitter.com/tyma5T1Yxa
— Jacqui Jeras (@JacquiJerasTV) October 14, 2016
Update 7:30AM Strongest wind may still be coming this morning and afternoon.
Ok, one more one update since storm #2 is taking its time. While we did get gusts to 67kph last night at 2AM those are not the strongest of what we might see this morning so stay alert, stay safe and prepare for more power outages. There are also strong thunderstorms in Washington State with weaker ones reaching all the way up to Nanaimo. I may update this post if things get really ugly. I will start a new post dedicated to Storm #3 on my way home from work tonight around 5PM.
Winds will remain gusty, locally damaging through this afternoon as low #2 slowly weakens and crosses Van Island. #bcstorm pic.twitter.com/XqYhOblqcg
— Tyler Hamilton (@50ShadesofVan) October 14, 2016
https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/786927062523142144
Update 10PM Thursday – Wind Warning issued. Serious Rainfall. May be worst of three storms.
This will be the last post in this thread. I will make a new post tomorrow late morning when the new models are out so that it is dedicated go Saturday/Sunday.
The second storm is beginning now with some rain. The way the models are working out, this Friday storm may be the worst of the three. Rainfall total through Friday 5PM could be as high as 60mm.
Here is the imagery for when the low approaches the Island and the winds should begin between 2-5AM. They should peak between 5-8AM and will last until 11AM. Expect delays on the ferries.
The model again has the Saturday storm impacting Oregon and Washington, not BC. So we might not see any impact at all. But I will keep an eye on it and make a new post Friday late morning that will update through the weekend.
Have a good night all.
Update 10:30AM – Wind Warning issued tonight Models split Friday and but Agree Good News for Saturday storm
(This post will be update again around 5PM)
The morning UWash and NAM models are out and there is a little bit of disagreement.
The Good Scenario is the NAM which has the Low impacting right at Cape Flaterry in NW Washington State. The would create very little to no wind for us.
NAM Friday
The UWash model has the low maybe 50km to the north more in line with Barklay Sound but that is still far enough south that the winds *should* be limited to the South Island/Victoria area. However, it is just a matter of a few kilometres here and there so certainly the potential for high winds remains.
UWash Friday
SATURDAY GOOD NEWS
The picture has changed markedly for Saturday.
The UWash and NAM models are now much closer to agreement as you can see below.
NAM
GFS
They look very similar. With the highest winds impacting the Oregon Coast. The timing is also very different with the low moving much more quickly and impacting before sundown on Saturday so high tides should not be an issue.
This also means that most of the rain will impact that area as well. So if this forecast holds, which it should now that the models agree and we are within 48 hours, then tonight’s storm will be the most severe here on Vancouver Island as opposed to the Saturday/Sunday storm.
But I will be keeping an eye on every model run to make sure no big changes occur.
Take care tonight. There was a small tree down near Cathedral Grove this morning that a semi truck unfortunately ran into. It appeared no one was hurt but just a good reminder to be prepared for anything when you round a corner. The wet roots and heavy leaves and branches will cause smaller trees especially to come down.
Update 5:30AM – Wind Warning issued for Port Alberni Thursday night storm – 90-100kph winds.
(This post will be update again around 10AM)
The first wave of rain is almost over as you can see below, the rain is starting to move off the Island.
We have received just over 33 mm so far.
The second wave of storminess is coming to it and it will pack some wind after all Environment Canada has just issued a wind warning for Inland, West and East Vancouver Island.
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.
The second in a series of powerful October storms will arrive Thursday evening over the South Coast. Rain and very strong winds can be expected with that storm.
Southeast winds up to 80 km/h can be expected over East Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast and up to 100 km/h over West Vancouver Island. As the low crosses Vancouver Island the winds will shift to southwest 50 gust 90 km/h. These winds will ease midday Friday as the low tracks further inland.
The low should move over the Island around 9PM Thursday night so that is when the strongest winds should begin.
Even without the stronger storm coming Saturday if this forecast holds, Thursday would be a major storm. Prepare for power outages and for downed branches and trees.
Rainfall totals from 5AM this morning to 5AM Friday will be in the 16-30mm range (green) again for Port Alberni but other parts of the Island miht get up to 60mm. (In pink)
I will update again as soon as the next model run is complete around 10AM.
https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/786415271925784576
UPDATE 10:40PM Wednesday – TIMING WORRISOME FOR SATURDAY – UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
The evening models are out and it is a mix of good and bad news.
The good news (for us here on Central Vancouver Island) is that the UWash has shifted the centre of the storm slightly south.. which means the winds have a greater chance of missing us to the south…. barely. As you can see below.
However, there are a number of problems with this scenario, the bad news:
#1: Only a slight jog of the low to the north and the strongest winds (gusts in white are 75+knot/120kph) would bring those strongest winds directly into Barklay Sound.
#2: The timing of this new position means the strongest winds, toward the back of the low, come on shore between 11PM Saturday and 5AM Sunday. Dangerously close to high tide on Sunday at 1AM.
Due to the shift to the south, the highest rainfall totals have also shifted to the south. However, this could still easily change in the next 48 hours before the storm arrives.
Continue to prepare for the worst.
Update 1:30PM – EXPECT EXTENSIVE FERRY CANCELLATIONS on SATURDAY – Hurricane Force/120KPH wind gusts over water. Flooding Rains.
There are serious flooding rains possible on Saturday along with major winds likely. Expect ferry cancellations all day Saturday and possible flooding Saturday night and Sunday morning. Get prepared folks, it could be a doozy. Updated time lines for the first rains beginning tonight are in the update on the website. This post will last until the end of the first two small waves of rain on Friday, then I will do a new post for the big action on Saturday when we should have a more reliable and precise idea of its impact. For now though, prepare for the worst, batten down the hatches, find some candles, get sandbags from the City of Port Alberni Works yard, etc. Take care.
New Model update: Timings adjusted for start of rains.
Wave 1 now starts 5-8PM Wednesday evening and ends before 5AM Thursday. Some lingering showers early Thursday. No wind.
Rainfall Amount (for Port Alberni) to 5AM: 8-16mm
Wave 2 : After a break around noon Thursday rain starts again between 2PM and 5PM Thursday. Ends before 11AM Friday.
Total Rainfall (for Port Alberni) in 16-32mm range
Big Storm begins on Saturday with light rain before 5AM. Winds will build throughout the day and look likely to peak around the dinner hour. The timing of this and exact position of the Ex-Songda low can still change significantly so no specifics however I think it is safe to say:
EXPECT EXTENSIVE FERRY CANCELLATIONS ALL DAY
Sustained 20knot/40kph winds will begin in the Strait of Georgia by 5AM and build to 35knot/65kph by noon. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 50Knots/90kph are expected in Northern Georgia Strait (Campbell River/Courtenay) as the low approaches (minimum pressure an impressive-for-here 955mb) in the 5PM-8PM hours. Note red areas below.
Gusts are currently forecast in the waters of Georgia Strait to peak at 65Knot/120kph. Near Hurricane Force.
Rainfall Amounts are SEVERE.
In 24 hours between 5AM Saturday and 5AM Sunday we are FIRMLY in the 65-120mm (black) range with double that possible at higher elevations or toward the West Coast.
Plan accordingly!
Update 7AM
A couple handy tweets this morning from Ensembleator
Here's this morning's look at the wave train #YVR pic.twitter.com/urobh6ozWH
— Chris Doyle (@ensembleator) October 12, 2016
The storm train begins gently this eve with rain beginning in the 7-9 pm range #YVR. Important models details not yet resolved for thu night pic.twitter.com/NvihzP9KJk
— Chris Doyle (@ensembleator) October 12, 2016
As you have heard in the Special Weather Statements through Environment Canada, we have a number of storms headed our way. The first two waves on Wednesday night and Friday look like they are going to be mostly rain. The really major storm, which is actually the remnants of Typhoon Songda looks set to impact us on Saturday or Sunday.
Here are the details:
Wave 1
Start time: 8-11PM Wednesday
End time: 11AM Thursday
Total Rain: ~30mm
Peak: 2-5AM Thursday (8-16mm)
Wind: Peak on East Coast before 5AM Thursday
Wave 2
Start time: 11AM-2PM Thursday
End time: 8AM Friday
Total Rain: ~50mm
Peak: 8-11PM Friday (16-32mm)
Wind: not much.
This one will likely be the first to cause notable rises in local streams.
Wave 3 – ex-Typhoon Songda.
Because we are a ways out and the Typhoon is not even going to cross the dateline until at least Thursday I won’t make any predictions yet, but below is the forecast imagery as it comes across. You can see in the first picture below the little blob on the left side of the picture and watch it move across and gain significant strength as it approaches the West Coast.
This wave will last from late Saturday through Sunday and deliver both rain and likely high winds. The SpotX models are suggesting up to 75kph gust in our local. They are often wrong, but it is still worth noting.
For now, prepare for the rain on Wednesday night through Friday and expect more statements and warnings starting from Environment Canada on Wednesday.
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