Cold and Wet June finally ending

It hasn’t been a nice month. Juneuary, Junevember, no doubt there are other, less diplomatic terms. 🙂

Here are the stats over the past few years just to prove the point. I will update this post on Sunday with the final values but unless we get an unexpected heat wave tomorrow the message is not going to change.

————–Average————————–
Year—High–Low—Mean—-Rain—-Wind
2006: 25.6C 11.1C 17.7C 28.7mm 6.5kph
2007: 21.8C 10.1C 14.9C 69.7mm 7.0kph
2008: 22.3C 9.6C 14.9C 27.7mm 8.2kph
2009: 25.2C 11.6C 17.8C 18.3mm 7.7kph
2010: 19.1C 10.0C 14.1C 26.4mm 8.1kph
2011: 18.9C 10.8C 14.5C 17.8mm 7.2kph
2012: 17.3C 9.7C 13.3C 61.0mm 6.8kph
——30yr Normals from EnvCan at Harbour (A)——
71-’00: 20.5C 8.6C 14.5C 75mm 9.4kph
61-90: 20.5C 8.4C 14.5C 47.3mm —
——30yr Normals from EnvCan at Robertson Crk—–
71-’00: 21.4C 8.5C 15C 59.6mm —–
61-90: 21.9C 8.4C 15.2C 49.3mm —

I’ve highlighted the low and wet extremes in blue and the high and dry extremes in red.

As you can see, compared to the last few years, 2012 is very much a low point. Even in terms of wind and rain we are running a pretty close 2nd. Its almost laughable to think that we are a full 8C cooler than the average high of just three years ago. It’s no wonder people are complaining

In terms of comparisons with long term climate normals averages from Environment Canada which again we would definitely be on the low swing of the graph. My station would be most analogous to the Harbour station in the climate records. I do find it very interesting that our average daily lows are nearly a degree above normal. This likely has to do with increased cloud cover keeping the temperatures from swinging overnight.

I’ve included the trend over the last 60 years to show the normals have not budged much in terms of temperature with slightly lower highs in June at Robertson Creek (inland) but no change at the Harbour while daytime lows have increased in both those cases.

What really sticks out to me is the rain totals. Notice that the top two years of the past six for rain have been 2007 and 2012. These two years were almost completely opposite in terms of terms of temperature.

Long term it seems to indicate while we havent seen any warming at all for the month of June over the past sixty years, we do seem to be seeing a strong trend upward in the amount of June rain… June 2012 is below normal for rain for the Harbour compared to the 71-2000 normals, but above the previous 61-90 normal.

I’m looking forward to Environment Canada releasing the next decade update showing the Normals from 1980-2010. When that comes out is anyone’s guess, especially considering the cutbacks they are suffering.

So when will summer finally come? Well… What if I told you that I think it might not really come, much like last year. It seems our only hope is a big kick from El Niño, but he’s looking pretty weak for the next few months at least.

There does appear to be a dry spell coming after Tuesday though, with the possibility of our first 30C day around the 10th… so that’s nice. Remember the heat contest? Ha! 🙂

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Alberniweather Blog (Chris)

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