Update 7:30AM Snowfall Warning issued for East side of the Island.
EC just issued a snowfall warning from Comox down to Nanoose. Another 5cm is expected this morning. The drive BC cameras show plenty of snow on that side already. Here is the highway 4 junction at Coombs.
Drive safely. I will have an update for the Sunday storm this afternoon.
Warnings
7:25 AM PST Saturday 27 January 2018
Snowfall warning in effect for:East Vancouver Island – Courtenay to Campbell River
East Vancouver Island – Nanoose Bay to Fanny Bay
Snowfall, with total amounts of about 10 cm is expected.A low pressure system approaching Vancouver Island is giving snow to parts of eastern Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast this morning. Snow accumulation of 5 cm has been reported at Comox and Powell River. An additional 5 cm of snow can be expected before the snow tapers off near noon.
Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.tempetepacifique-pacificstorm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.
Hang onto your hats, the storms are on the way again. Click through for the full hour by hour run down!
Snow returns Friday night/Saturday morning
It was a very challenging drive over the hump Friday morning, one of the worst I’ve ever experienced, and Saturday might be much the same… but possibly over the whole east side of the Island from Comox to Duncan.
Showers (in grey below) are expected to begin around midnight… though perhaps not in Port Alberni proper. Most of the activity on Friday/Saturday is on the east side of the Island as Esterly winds blow across the Strait.
Snowfall (in greens) intensifies on the East side in the 1-4AM periods.
There is a possibility for a change over to snow in Port Alberni around sunrise (much like today) but most of the activity is definitely going to be on the east side of the Island particularly Bowser area and from Nanoose to Duncan.
Things should start to clear up by around 9AM for most parts of the Island.
Maximum accumulations is probably in the 3-5cm range though there may be very localized areas with more. There is also a possibility for blustery winds with this Saturday event, so be prepared for that.
Extreme Rain Potential late Sunday night into Monday.
The River Forecast Centre has already issued a High Streamflow Advisory for Stamp River in anticipation of this Sunday night storm.
It says:
High Streamflow Advisory – Vancouver Island
ISSUED: January 26, 2018 09:00 AMThe River Forecast Centre is issuing the High Streamflow Advisories for:
- Central Vancouver Island including Sproat River, Somass River and tributaries and areas around Port Alberni
- Eastern Vancouver Island including the Englishman River, Tsolum River, Oyster River and tributaries around Campbell River, Comox, Parksville and surrounding areas
- Southern Vancouver Island including the Chemainus River, Cowichan River, Koksilah River and surrounding areas
An atmospheric river storm event is expected to impact Vancouver Island on Sunday and early Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected with the forecast ranging from 50-160mm. Higher amounts are expected where upslope conditions occur, and slightly lower amounts along the eastern slopes of Vancouver Island. Temperatures are forecast to increase, and freezing levels will rise to 2000m. Snowmelt from mid-elevation may add to runoff for this event.
River levels are expected to rise through Sunday, with peak levels expected on Monday and potentially into Tuesday. Rivers flowing out of lakes are particularly susceptible due to the slow recession from last weekend’s storm event; these include the Somass River and the Cowichan River.
We have potentially extreme rainfall predicted for Sunday and into Monday on Vancouver Island.
Here is the 24 hour picture from 4PM Sunday to 4PM Monday. There are very extreme totals predicted here. Black is up to 130mm… Port Alberni is possibly included. Red is 130-250mm Higher elevations definitely likely to get that. White in locations on the West Coast (Kennedy Lake area) of between 260-520mm in 24 hours.. that’s 20 inches… over 1.5ft of rain in 24 hours!
Lets hope this forecast, and system, backs off from these extremes. But we are 3 days out, so there is a good chance of this verifying.
Widespread showers are expected to start Sunday morning and last all day, gradually intensifying into Sunday night and really picking up steam on Monday morning and early afternoon.
Most of the rainfall is expected on Monday. So again, lets hope it’s being overly pessimistic.
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