Updated 11:20AM
Things are starting to warm up. They are getting a ton of snow in Vancouver but we’re being spared here. Just light stuff. No big accumulations except in very localized areas.
CLOSED – #BCHwy4 in both directions at Bingo Bay west of #PortAlberni due to vehicle incident. Crews are on scene, assessment in progress.
— DriveBC VI (@DriveBC_VI) February 23, 2018
Updated 8AM
Snow has begun across the Island. Reports from Gold River, Courtenay area and Nanaimo. Here at VIU it is snowing quite steady. It just started in the past 10 minutes.
Just got a first report of snow in Port Alberni from Nick.
Flurries just started in South Port…
— Nick Vanderest (@backlandz) February 23, 2018
Snow has started a little later for Port Alberni. This is consistent with the models which predicted a later start for us. If you see snow falling in your area, let me know on twitter @alberniweather.
https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/967067437421117440
https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/967065955443474433
Update 6AM
https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/967028431220125697
Update 10PM:
EC Special Weather statement continued for Port Alberni (Inland VI)
https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/966914728839671808
As you can see in the forecast at the top, there is a statement in effect. That may get switched to a full snowfall warning by tomorrow for some, or maybe all areas. But the crux is we are in from anywhere from 2-10cm (I expect only 5cm for us) according to EC and more according to other models.
If something changes drastically in the forecast I will update this post.
First, I will show timings, then amounts. As for whether it falls as rain or snow. The prudent thing is to just assume snow. It could be different based on location and elevation, or maybe it will all be snow everywhere, or, less likely all rain. So best to prepare for the worst and hope for the worst. So lets get into it!
Morning start, evening finish
The UWash charts below show the progression with high elevations snow beginning between 4-7AM.
Things start picking up in the 7-10AM timeframe, probably later in that range. Here we see where the UWash model is predicting showers at the lower levels including Port Alberni and the east coast, and snow in the inland and higher elevation areas. This is hugely dependent on how cold it gets tonight and how hard that cold hangs on into Friday morning. There is potential for freezing rain, slush and snow. Generally deteriorating driving conditions.
The 11AM-1PM timeframe is the peak of the activity. Expect the heaviest snowfall amounts and worst driving conditions here. Of particular note is Victoria which UWash is claiming could see snow… ugly commute for people down there. There is some dark grey areas in the Alberni Valley which means heavier rain. This could easily fall as snow or at least wet snow if the temperature is cold enough.
By the 1-4PM timeframe the system is moving south. It looks basically snowpocalytic for Metro Vancouver. So god help that commute if this forecast verifies.
Again, on the Island Uwash is really hanging its hat on Victoria getting snow.
By 4-7PM, the Island is pretty much all done. Vancouver continues getting hammered. Good luck to them.
Now for totals
Here are the main models:
Canadian LAM
Canadian GEM
US NAM
US GFS
These are all predictions for Port Alberni at sea level. As you can see, 3 of 4 go for snow. However, the UWash which I showed earlier also has gone with rain, so we have a mix. I am inclined to be cautious and say it will mostly be snow.
There is less difference on amounts from those predicting snow. 3-8cm. So lets say 5cm for Port Alberni. Again, this could be much more elsewhere, places like Whiskey Creek or Beaver Creek… or less near the ocean.
Stay safe out there! If something changes drastically in the forecast I will update this post.
Happy Friday. There is also some activity expected Saturday, but it is not as big a concern as Friday.
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