Updated 6AM Friday — Plenty of snow in the forecast but probabilities and amounts unsure. Freezing rain possible Sunday Night.

Update 6AM Friday

Update: road report: it was snowing and sticking on the west side of the hump. Snow covered. But the east side and all the way to qualicum was clear and just wet. In Parksville it is dry…

2cm on the ground and still snowing. I think EC officially wins! The heaviest precipitation will be around 9AM this morning and there is a chance of freezing rain so be very careful out there.

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/817367258087333888

Heaviest precip is likely in the 9AM hour. Watch for heavy snow or possible freezing rain.

Update 3:15PM Thursday

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/817138019509551105

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/817146873949523968

Original post

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/817034889736294400

Environment Canada (EC) has up to 14cm of snow falling overnight tonight and through Friday. We have had big predictions this winter with nothing come of them, but we have some seriously cold air hanging around so the probabilities should be higher this time as long as the precipitation actually materializes… but there’s the rub.

The UWash and other models are very split on whether we even get any precipitation at all.

UWash says no low elevation snow for the Valley at all between now and 4PM Saturday.

And that is probably because it also shows no precipitation at all for any of the populated low lying areas. Port Alberni shows less than 2mm falling but more if you are in the Sproat Lake or Beaver Creek areas.

So unless these models change drastically this morning I am not expecting 14cm to fall between now and Friday or Saturday in Port Alberni or on the East side of the Island. I would not expect any at all. BUT that does not mean we should not prepare for the possibility.

The greater threat for precipitation will be on Sunday night and Monday when a much stronger system comes in from the southwest.

If there is still any cold air around by Sunday evening then this is where we could really get some snowfall and likely some freezing rain too but the UWash has us warming up enough that there is very little snowfall for our area on its charts.

I will leave the snow lovers with some hope though… Here is what the Canadian GEM model says over at SpotX. And it has been consistent on this for days… but is also rarely right!