6:30PM – Tapeipring off but still more snow expected

Final Update 6:30PM Saturday

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807771485565636608

We received about 8 more cm today and I have 25cm on the ground.

We may have another 5cm tonight and 5cm coming tomorrow. Today was also the warmest day. It is going to stay around freezing and starting Monday it will get down below freezing and maybe clear up too!

FYI: Here are the Port Alberni snow removal guidelines. Also don’t forget about your neighbours who might not be able to clear their walk. Saw lots of folks shovelling more than they needed to. Thanks!

Here’s the latest Snowfall Warning.

Issued at 2016-12-10 23:37 UTC by Environment Canada:
Snowfall warning continued for:
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)
Current details:
Snowfall, with total amounts of 10 to 20 cm is expected this weekend.

Pockets of cold air over Inland Vancouver Island combined with
precipitation associated with a low offshore will continue to give
snow tonight and Sunday morning. Snowfall amounts of 10 cm tonight and an additional 5 cm on Sunday are expected. The snow will ease over midday Sunday followed by a ridge of high pressure bringing drier conditions and colder temperatures next week.

Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions.

11:30AM

It’s still snowing, and unlikely to stop. Here is the latest snowfall warning text issued 10:30AM

Issued at 2016-12-10 18:30 UTC by Environment Canada:
Snowfall warning continued for:
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)
Current details:
Snowfall, with total amounts of 10 to 20 cm is expected this weekend.

Pockets of cold air over Inland Vancouver Island combined with
precipitation associated with a low offshore will produce another
round of snow this weekend. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm today and an additional 5 cm on Sunday are expected. The snow will ease over the latter part of Sunday followed by a ridge of high pressure bringing drier conditions and colder temperatures next week.

Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

9AM – Update Saturday.

If you want to know when or if it is going to turn to rain, just watch the snowflakes… bigger means wetter. And check the temperature on this page. It is currently just above 0°C and the dewpoint just below. As long as that stays like that then it will snow. Other areas where it has turned to rain are around 2°C.

But More snow is on the way! EC says 10cm today and 5 cm tonight. That would give us over 30cm (1ft). We measured 5cm at noon Friday. Then 15cm total at 8PM last night.

The total right now at 9AM? 20cm! (over 7 inches)

And it is definitely on the radar… the line of moisture is flowing right over the South Island.

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

Doesn’t look like it’s going to let up much.

Here is the latest text from the EC Snowfall Warning:

Issued at 2016-12-10 13:44 UTC by Environment Canada:
Snowfall warning issued for:
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)
Current details:
Snowfall, with total amounts of 10 to 20 cm is expected this weekend.

Pockets of cold air over Inland Vancouver Island combined with
precipitation associated with a low offshore will produce another
round of snow this weekend. Snowfall amounts of 10 cm on Saturday and an additional 10 cm on Sunday are expected. The snow will ease over the latter part of Sunday followed by a ridge of high pressure bringing drier conditions and colder temperatures next week.

Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

4:30PM Update – More Snow on the radar, literally.

It is moving in this general direction…

hard to say how much will impact Port Alberni as we are on the outer edge of the radar range but looks like we can expect more moderate to heavy snow and possible mix of rain in the coming hours.

EC agrees:

SNOWFALL WARNINGS remain in effect. Sat image shows another band of #snow approaching the south coast. https://t.co/eVP1P7OoXT #BCstorm pic.twitter.com/cwp9IvhaH2

— ECCC Weather British Columbia (@ECCCWeatherBC) December 10, 2016

Friday tweet updates

https://twitter.com/chrisalecanada/status/807327555694968832

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807317351725035520

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807309881011105792

Latest snowfall warning

11:06 AM PST Friday 09 December 2016
Snowfall warning in effect for:

Inland Vancouver Island

Snowfall, with total amounts of 10 to 15 cm is expected.

A band of snow has moved into the Fraser Valley and will ease in the next hour but the airmass is unstable and more flurries will develop this afternoon. Snowfall amounts over most areas are expected to be around 5 cm. Except at lower elevations near the City of Victoria and across Metro Vancouver further amounts will be up to 2 cm as snow mixes with rain later today. The greatest amounts approaching 10 cm have been over East Vancouver Island and this is expected to move into the Fraser Valley later today. In addition strong easterly winds combined with the snow will cause reduced visibilities in blowing snow, especially in the Fraser Valley today.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Take frequent breaks and avoid strain when clearing snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.tempetepacifique-pacificstorm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #BCStorm.

Blues skies & snows plow on #bchwy4a #coombs pic.twitter.com/P8YAlgQhyY

— Vancouver Island District (@TranBCVanIsle) December 9, 2016

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807276495546695680

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807272768722997248

Latest Snowfall warning update:

Issued at 2016-12-09 15:50 UTC by Environment Canada:
Snowfall warning continued for:
East Vancouver Island, B.C. (081300)
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)
Snowfall warning ended for:
West Vancouver Island, B.C. (081400)
Current details:
Snowfall, with total amounts of 10 to 15 cm is expected.

A band of snow is moving across the South Coast this morning and has brought a trace of snow to much of Metro Vancouver. In areas over the Fraser Valley there have been several cm and over 5 cm over much of the Island. Snow is changing to rain over West Vancouver Island this morning as milder air gradually makes its way eastward and the snowfall warning is ended. Snow levels will rise slightly this afternoon and snow will change to rain near sea level with amounts of 2 to 4 cm possible before the transition. Meanwhile further amounts of 5 to 10 cm are expected in the Fraser Valley and over higher terrain through Saturday morning. In addition strong easterly winds combined with the snow will cause reduced visibilities in blowing snow, especially in the Fraser Valley today.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807265610874818560

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807264192218611712

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807262017354534914

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807260279247511552

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807239845634457600

Tweet Updates… latest at top…

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807116199830003712

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807114850585325568

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807112894626217984

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807111956108754944

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807109964628008960

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807108623935471616

@50ShadesofVan we have snow falling in Metchosin!! #bcstorm #keepitcoming

— Bill Quin (@billdozer123) December 9, 2016

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807106929369591808

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807104676185284610

https://twitter.com/alberniweather/status/807085876769492993

Updated 3:45PM Snowfall Warning Update and possible freezing rain.

Totals are down one update…

The HRRR short range high resolution model is predicting freezing rain overnight. So that is something to be very watchful of.

Here is the updated Snowfall Warning just issued:

3:23 PM PST Thursday 08 December 2016
Snowfall warning in effect for:

Inland Vancouver Island
Snowfall, with total amounts of 10 to 20 cm is expected.

A Pacific storm will reach the South Coast tonight. This storm will bring significant snowfall amounts to the above regions as cold arctic air is entrenched over the region.

The snow will begin over Vancouver Island late this evening and further east overnight and continue into Friday. The snow is expected to become mixed with rain as snow levels slowly rise through Friday near sea level. For communities at higher elevations or inland, precipitation will remain in the form of snow through Friday night. Total snowfall accumulations of 5 to 15 cm are expected over low lying coastal regions by Saturday morning with up to 25 cm over higher terrain. Strong easterly winds combined with the snow will cause reduced visibilities in blowing snow, especially in the Fraser Valley.

More precipitation is on the way Saturday but will likely fall as rain for low lying region. Flurries are possible on Sunday across the region.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Take frequent breaks and avoid strain when clearing snow.

Update 10:45AM Snowfall Warning Issued — Final Predictions — Up to 20cm in Port Alberni and across much of Island.

The models disagree. So, I am going with the Environment Canada forecast. A Snowfall warning is in effect.

10:41 EnvCanada issued warning #Snowfall 10 to 20 cm #PortAlberni #BCStorm https://t.co/fNxSULPaWZ

— PortAlberni (@ECAlertBC46) December 8, 2016

Even though Environment Canada has issued this warning, I think it is a low confidence forecast. The *majority* of the models, including the Canadian GEM, the GFS, and the SRES all say all snow. 5-15cm for Port Alberni. The RAP model says rain… and the UWash says a mix of both.

The snow will thus depend solely on local conditions and local temperatures and local knowledge. Which Environment Canada has, so lets prepare for the worst (or best! depending on you point of view!) and see how we go!

Snow should begin overnight around midnight though some say as early as 10PM and others as late as 4AM.

Update 7AM Thursday – A Cold Wind Blows but Models starting to weaken.

It is -1°C at Alberniweather right now but with the stiff NE breeze it feels more like -6°C! Brrrr!

Last nights UWash model run was interesting. While EC is going pretty much full snow at least into Friday evening, with total accumulations of 20cm, below is what UWash says, less than 5cm for the whole 24hrs between Thursday and Friday afternoon though more like 5-10cm for Cowichan.

This mornings high resolution short term models seem to be weakening the system quite a bit and pushing it later, the 5AM runs stretxhing to just 1AM and 3AM Friday show no precipitation falling at all by then.

I will update again when the morning UWash model is out.

We should still prepare for snow, however, the total accumulations are coming down. It may be that the Arctic air flowing out of the Interior has beat back and dried out the Pacific front as it approached us but we shall see.

Update 11PM – Wednesday

Here is the latest totals. Not much has changed, maybe a small decrease in accumulations. Only UWash says there will be a mix of rain and snow, all the other models say it will be straight snow. Here are their totals.

Environment Canada has released their first prediction on totals. They say no rain on Thursday night and “Possibly more than 5cm”.

These are all to 4PM Friday. Many have varying amounts of snow falling after that but generally less than the first push.

The last one is only to 10AM

Fingers Crossed that everyone stays safe and has fun in the snow! Will update late tomorrow morning hopefully.

Update 2: Emergency Preparedness tips:

#BCStorm items to keep in your car:
Sand, salt, cat litter
Antifreeze + windshield fluid
Tow rope
Jumper cables
Warning light/flares

— Naomi Yamamoto (@naomiyamamoto) December 7, 2016

UPDATE: OMG! Environment Canada is upgrading our Station!

You'll be happy to hear that the station is being upgraded and will be back online soon. Snow sensor is being added!

— ECCC Weather British Columbia (@ECCCWeatherBC) December 7, 2016

YAY! NEW STATION!

Original Post

If you just want to see the totals predicted, scroll down to the bottom of this post. 🙂

Now that we are just a day or so out, we can start talking seriously about details for what should be a more serious event than we had on Monday.

It Starts with Rain, then Snow, then Rain. Or, maybe all Snow, or all Rain!

The models have been all over the place over the past few days which is why I have resisted posted anything on this website. Some have said rain and snow, some said all snow, then all of them said all snow, and now some say rain or snow again.

The uncertainty is that we don’t know how cold the air will be close to the surface. This is especially important in Port Alberni. We often get situations where the cold air is trapped in the Valley and so we end up with snow, or even freezing rain, before the warm winds finally come and melt everything. That is the situation we are facing today.

The Beginning — Thursday Evening

The system comes on shore around 8PM on Thursday. In the images below, grey shaded areas are rain, and bright green/yellow areas are snow.

Map Key

You can see that it is coming up from the South, so Victoria will get the first look at the system. You can see that in this initial hour, parts of Victoria closest to the water are shaded grey meaning rain showers. There is snow further inland toward Sooke. This all depends on winds and cold air at the time. So very open to change.

By 9PM Thursday, only an hour later, things change dramatically:

Now we see heavy snow across the whole south Island. This is a great example of what to expect from this storm. It will probably start with light rain or drizzle, then as the drizzle turns into heavier rain, the rain will turn to sleet and snow as we hover near the freezing point.

From that point on it is really a crap shoot. The same pattern will start in Port Alberni around 11PM Thursday night as the system travels north.

Rain/Snow will continue all night and into Friday morning. But that’s not all. The UWash model has mostly rain for the Port Alberni area and Valley but I don’t think we will know the final outcome until at least tomorrow afternoon. If it stays foggy and cold all day Thursday and into Thursday night, we could have a lot more snow. We just have to wait and see.

Windy Friday could produce White Out conditions

There is also a potential for severe winds with this storm.

The strongest winds will be on the East and West Coasts of the Island around 4AM Friday and then again 4PM Friday. If these winds combine with heavy snow we could easily have whiteout conditions. We already had near whiteout conditions on Monday so no big surprise that adding some wind into the mix could really make things dangerous.