A change is finally coming
January has been…. A little boring! It has also been very very dry. We only had rain at the New Year and then nothing since.
That will change Thursday night.
First contact – Thursday night
We should get one more nice day Wednesday with the fog clearing around noon.
It will cloud over (above the fog) Thursday and moisture will travel down the Island starting Thursday afternoon, reaching Port Alberni and most of the Island north of Victoria between 4PM and 7PM.
Both rain and snow start Thursday night
For Thursday night the model below shows mostly high elevation snow. (snow is in greens and blues, rain in greys)
However, there could be pockets of freezing air that linger in the Valley’s and anywhere protected from the southerly winds so expect there to be a mix of rain and snow falling and where the ground is frozen, it could stick.
Environment Canada is calling for up to 2cm. Not much, but enough to make driving interesting!
Messy windy stormy snowy Friday
Friday looks like a problem. This is the picture for 1AM Friday.
Two things stand out.
1: notice that swirl of wind off the coast of the Island. A pretty strong little storm. This will cause blustery winds all the way down the coast.
2: Its position will will also shift winds around to the East, and could set up Strait Effect snow conditions for the East Island. N
Notice the green areas pull back from West coast of the Island, it is grey rain along there.
But on the east side, the green snowy areas creep down to the water’s edge at Courtenay/Campbell River, Bowser, Nanaimo and North Cowichan.
Port Alberni still looks mostly rainy but this will be a delicate balance… we could see significant snow overnight by very early Friday morning, or nothing.
Friday switch to all rain.
Like any west coast snow event… the rain is usually never far.
The model says that by 7AM we will see nothing but rain.
Rain will continue all day Friday, only the very high elevations still have snow.
Weekend scattered snow.
Cold air will come in behind the system on Friday and we will be in an unstable pattern of pockets of precipitation. Look for snow showers and flurries through Saturday and Sunday!
It doesn’t look like too much accumulation, and mostly on the west coast. But it should definitely finally feel like winter!
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